Business cycle effects on commercial bank loan portfolio performance in developing economies

This paper studies the effects of business cycles on the performance of commercial bank loan portfolios across major developing economies in the period 1996–2008. We measure loan performance via loan loss provisions (that is, recognized expenses related to expected losses in bank income statements). Our results indicate that while economic growth is the main driver of loan portfolio performance, interest rates have second-order effects. Furthermore, we find the relationship between loan loss provisions and economic growth to be highly non-linear only under extreme economic stress: GDP growth needs to decline by more than 6 percentage points (pp, in absolute terms) in order to generate an increase in loan loss provisions equivalent to median emerging market bank profits; while a decline of more than 10 pp in growth implies significant capital losses, of at least 20 percent, for the median emerging market bank. In addition, we find higher loan loss provisions are associated with private sector leverage, poor loan portfolio quality, and lack of banking system penetration and capitalization.