Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation

We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark medium-scale New Keynesian model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government capital, and distortionary taxation. The posterior yields modestly positive short-run multipliers around 0.53 and modestly negative long-run multipliers around −0.36. We compare and relate recent literature multiplier calculations to ours. We explain the central empirical findings with the help of a simple three equation New Keynesian model with sticky wages and credit-constrained households.