Policy changes in the Swiss electricity market: Analysis of likely market responses

The Swiss electricity market is still a public monopoly. Switzerland do not intend to be part of the single European electricity market, but given its strategic geographical position—Switzerland is in the middle of the core area of the European Union, Swiss power producers maintain electricity exchanges (imports and exports) with neighbouring countries. These exchanges represent an important source of revenue for Swiss utilities.Switzerland is currently facing a period of fundamental policy changes. Even though the market has not been legally liberalised, emergent liberalisation is taking place. Furthermore, nuclear dismantling has been debated since the early 1980s. People have not yet accepted the dismantling proposition, so there is actually no law banning the construction of new nuclear plants, but given the current attitude of the population and the politicians any new nuclear investments are most unlikely.The aim of this paper is to illustrate likely market responses to different policy changes in the Swiss electricity market, such as nuclear phase-out and changes in international exchanges policies that may arise as a consequence of the emergent liberalisation that is taking place in this market.This article presents a conceptualisation model that helps understanding the logic of the dynamic behaviour of the Swiss electricity market, and illustrates the rationale of politicians and decision makers involved in the market planning process, as well as the possible consequences of the implementation of different policies. The purpose is not to forecast or quantify market response, but to identify and understand possible scenarios for market behaviour.