Fuzzy multicriteria for developing a risk management system in seismically prone areas

• The multifaceted nature of seismic risk management (SRM) requires a MCDM approach.
• Fuzzy MCDM can handle uncertainties and subjectivities associated with SRM.
• Applying SRM raises the awareness of influential factors that drive risk mitigation.
• Vulnerability and preparedness are identified as critical in a mitigation program.

Earthquakes pose a predominant risk to cities in seismically prone areas. This paper addresses the need to mitigate the exposure of cities to seismic risk in general and to existing and new build structures in particular. The many and complex factors to be considered require a form of Multi-Criteria Decision making system to be adopted. To cope with the interactions between socio-economic factors and the roles of multiple participants, criteria and alternatives the paper proposes the use of a fuzzy multi-criteria model. The fuzzy methodology forms the basis for the development of a composite fuzzy risk index for prioritizing different regions in Iran. The findings suggest that early risk assessments in seismically prone areas should be conducted in order to determine the multi-dimensional aspects of seismic risk including vulnerability and emergency response management.