کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
990158 935477 2006 24 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Dynamic and endogenous change of input–output structure with specific layers of technology
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Dynamic and endogenous change of input–output structure with specific layers of technology
چکیده انگلیسی

There are obvious gaps between long-term change in economic structure and its principal driving force—technological progress. History has shown the influence of technological progress on the economy and current insights in technological development can almost predict the technological waves of the next 50 years, but their potential impact on the economy has not yet been assessed. In this paper, we aim to simulate the evolution of economic structure as represented by input–output structure under specific technological change. A new version of a dynamic input–output model is developed in which both technological progress and deployment are endogenous. Investment in R&D drives the development of new technologies, installation of capital stock brings new technical processes into sector production, new and old technical processes within a sector exchange their relative weights in production as they are phased in or out, and sectors evolve or transform over time. Scenario analysis using this model applied to the Chinese electric power industry shows that the phasing-in of non-fossil energy technology will greatly change the structure of both the sector and the economy over the next 100 years.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics - Volume 17, Issue 2, June 2006, Pages 200–223
نویسندگان
,