کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
997567 | 1481453 | 2012 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Simulating a basketball match with a homogeneous Markov model and forecasting the outcome
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
We used a possession-based Markov model to model the progression of a basketball match. The model’s transition matrix was estimated directly from NBA play-by-play data and indirectly from the teams’ summary statistics. We evaluated both this approach and other commonly used forecasting approaches: logit regression of the outcome, a latent strength rating method, and bookmaker odds. We found that the Markov model approach is appropriate for modelling a basketball match and produces forecasts of a quality comparable to that of other statistical approaches, while giving more insight into basketball. Consistent with previous studies, bookmaker odds were the best probabilistic forecasts.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 28, Issue 2, April–June 2012, Pages 532–542
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 28, Issue 2, April–June 2012, Pages 532–542
نویسندگان
Erik Štrumbelj, Petar Vračar,