کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
997590 | 1481456 | 2011 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
MLP ensembles improve long term prediction accuracy over single networks
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
This work describes an award winning approach for solving the NN3 Forecasting Competition problem, focusing on the sound experimental validation of its main innovative feature. The NN3 forecasting task consisted of predicting 18 future values of 111 short monthly time series. The main feature of the approach was the use of the median for combining the forecasts of an ensemble of 15 MLPs to predict each time series. Experimental comparison to a single MLP shows that the ensemble increases the performance accuracy for multiple-step ahead forecasting. This system performed well on the withheld data, having finished as the second best solution of the competition with an SMAPE of 16.17%.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 27, Issue 3, July–September 2011, Pages 661–671
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 27, Issue 3, July–September 2011, Pages 661–671
نویسندگان
Paulo J.L. Adeodato, Adrian L. Arnaud, Germano C. Vasconcelos, Rodrigo C.L.V. Cunha, Domingos S.M.P. Monteiro,