کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
997643 | 1481459 | 2010 | 19 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies](/preview/png/997643.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
We forecast unemployment levels for the 176 German labour-market districts on a monthly basis. Because of their small sizes, strong spatial interdependencies exist between these regional units. To account for these, as well as for the heterogeneity in the regional development over time, we apply different versions of a univariate spatial GVAR model. When comparing the forecast precision with that of univariate time series methods, we find that the spatial model does indeed perform better, or at least as well. Hence, the spatial GVAR model provides an alternative or complementary approach to commonly used methods in regional forecasting which do not consider regional interdependencies.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 26, Issue 4, October–December 2010, Pages 908–926
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 26, Issue 4, October–December 2010, Pages 908–926
نویسندگان
N. Schanne, R. Wapler, A. Weyh,