Euro area structural convergence? A multi-criterion cluster analysis

This paper proposes a classification of the old member countries of the euro area in a structural data rich environment and run a convergence analysis using the same framework. First, we use a clustering approach and identify two structurally distinct clusters of countries that are not modified between 1999 and 2012: the South Countries Group (SCG) – composed of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – and the Other Countries Group (OCG). Second, we propose a convergence metrics and reach three key findings: (i) increase over time of the between-clusters׳ dispersion; (ii) diverging demographics and innovation performance into the OCG, and (iii) an unfortunate convergence towards high labour market duality in the SCG.