کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
998190 | 1481470 | 2008 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
A number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 24, Issue 1, January–March 2008, Pages 76–86
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 24, Issue 1, January–March 2008, Pages 76–86
نویسندگان
Michael P. Clements,