Introduction to “The future of macroeconomic forecasting”

This paper introduces the presentations in the Special Section on the “The future of macroeconomic forecasting”. Though the topic is not particularly new, new possibilities and new insights keep it on the agenda. The presentations and papers start from the concerning finding that, over the last fifty years, the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts in the G7 has not improved. The present critique of forecasting has various roots, some of which are as old as the early 1960s' critique of macroeconometric models and model forecasting. Another part of the dissatisfaction with macroeconomic forecasts, however, stems from users' unrealistic expectations about the limits of forecast accuracy. The conference explored many of these issues, and the papers addressing these issues discuss forecast biases, data quality, the forecasting process, leading indicators, and the relationship between forecast accuracy and the forecast horizon.