کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
998358 1481457 2011 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting accuracy of wind power technology diffusion models across countries
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Forecasting accuracy of wind power technology diffusion models across countries
چکیده انگلیسی

Wind power technology is analyzed in terms of diffusion, with incentive effects introduced as exogenous dynamics in the Generalized Bass Model (GBM) framework. Estimates and short-term forecasts of the life-cycles of wind power are provided for the US and Europe, as they have similar geographic areas, as well as for some leading European countries. GBMs have the best performance in model selection, and are ranked first in terms of forecast accuracy over a set of different accuracy measures and forecasting horizons, relative to the Standard Bass, Logistic, and Gompertz models.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 27, Issue 2, April–June 2011, Pages 592–601
نویسندگان
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