A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results

The paper introduces a model for forecasting match results for the top tier of men’s professional tennis, the ATP tour. Employing a Bradley-Terry type model, and utilising the data available on players’ past results and the surface of the contest, we predict match winners for the coming week’s matches, having updated the model parameters to take the previous week’s results into account. We compare the model to two logit models: one using official rankings and another using the official ranking points of the two competing players. Our model provides superior forecasts according to each of five criteria measuring the predictive performance, two of which relate to betting returns.