کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
998446 | 1481469 | 2008 | 16 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting the presidential primary vote: Viability, ideology and momentum
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
The presidential primary vote represents a unique electoral forecasting challenge, with multiple candidates and sequential voting. This study compares the leading primary vote forecast models by re-estimating them for a common set of candidates and nomination campaigns. A new forecast model is estimated to assess the predictive power of candidate ideology, controlling for the effects of variables found to be significant in prior studies. Finally, the study compares the early forecasts, based on data from before the Iowa caucus, with “momentum” models, which are the early models, updated with variables representing the results of the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary vote, predicting the remaining contested primary vote.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 24, Issue 2, AprilâJune 2008, Pages 193-208
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 24, Issue 2, AprilâJune 2008, Pages 193-208
نویسندگان
Wayne P. Steger,