کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
998476 | 1481471 | 2007 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. Fairly robust correlations between age structure, GDP and GDP growth have been discovered in current data. In this paper we use these two facts to study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that, due to projected fertility decreases, the poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies, in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. This remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 23, Issue 4, OctoberâDecember 2007, Pages 553-567
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 23, Issue 4, OctoberâDecember 2007, Pages 553-567
نویسندگان
Thomas Lindh, Bo Malmberg,