کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
998544 | 1481475 | 2006 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
On predictive distributions of public net liabilities
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
The analysis of the sustainability of public sector finances requires an accounting of all future revenues and all future spending that we would expect, under current tax laws and current entitlements. The classical calculation does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future economic and demographic developments, so the results can be misleading. Our aim is to produce a more robust summary of the sustainability of the public sector than the one currently available. By taking a forecasting point of view, our formulation takes into account the uncertainty of future productivity, stock and bond markets, and demography. Methodological complications that arise in the stochastic setting are discussed. Estimates of the relative roles of economics and demographics in the uncertainty of public net liabilities are presented.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 22, Issue 4, OctoberâDecember 2006, Pages 725-733
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 22, Issue 4, OctoberâDecember 2006, Pages 725-733
نویسندگان
Juha M. Alho, Reijo Vanne,