The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion

In 1982, the International Institute of Forecasters set up the Journal of Forecasting, followed in 1985 by the International Journal of Forecasting. The primary aim of their foundation, laid out in the first issues, was to take a “multi-disciplinary perspective”; all types of forecasting methods were of interest. Of particular importance were “papers that compare[d] different approaches to actual forecasting situations”, the multiple hypotheses approach. This paper evaluates the success of the two journals in meeting their objectives and in setting the research agenda in forecasting. The approach taken is through citation analysis and the identification of influential forecasting articles using both citations and expert analysis. The two approaches identified the same themes as particularly important, with the econometric advances of Engle and Granger outstanding. A content analysis of the journals was also undertaken, showing that the comparative approach to establishing improved forecasting methods through examining multiple hypotheses has been successfully adopted and is unusual when compared to other journals. Few articles examined the conditions under which one approach outperformed its competitors. By examining the highly cited articles in the forecasting journals compared to other journals in the business, economics, and management area, I conclude that the forecasting journals have covered all areas of forecasting research; however, many influential articles are published across a wide range of other journals. There was little cross-fertilisation between journals. There remain, however, topics which have been widely neglected. In particular, organisational issues and the effects of forecast error, highlighted as important areas when the journals were founded, have been ignored. These two issues directly impact the gap between theoretical contributions and forecasting practice, a gap that remains unbridged. In short, the journals have made progress in meeting the objectives set by the founders, but there still remains much important research to be done.