Demographic changes, labor markets and their consequences on post-school-transitions in West Germany 1975–2005

The German system of post-school education and training is well-known for its high degree of standardization and stratification. Whereas transitions from this system to the labor market have been examined widely, much less is known about the transition patterns of school-leavers to post-school education. In particular, there is a shortage of research applying a comprehensive view of school-leavers from different tracks and investigating changing overall transition patterns over time. In our paper we fill this research gap by investigating school-leavers’ transitions to post-school education in West Germany over the last 30 years. Particular attention is given to the influence of contextual conditions, such as demographic fluctuations, economic cycles, and changes in the social composition of school-leavers. The empirical analyses are based on the retrospective life-course survey ALWA, which contains detailed information on the education and work trajectories of 10,000 adults in Germany. Our results show that school-leavers with low and medium attainment need more time to enter training when unemployment is high or when the school-leaver cohort is large. Overall, access to post-school education has become increasingly difficult for these groups, over and above the market shortages and the changes in group composition. By contrast, the transitions of school-leavers from higher secondary schools are unaffected by market fluctuations and long-term structural change. In the period looked at here, their chances remained almost stable. Accordingly, we conclude that the transition rates of school-leavers with different educational attainment have diverged in (West) Germany over the last 30 years.