کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
999611 | 1481450 | 2013 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
The paper presents a point process model for predicting exact end-of-match scores in the premier league of American football, the National Football League. The hazards of scoring are allowed to vary with team statistics from previous games and/or the bookmaker point spread and over-under. The model is used to generate out-of-sample forecasts, which are evaluated using several criteria, including a Kelly betting strategy. In predicting the results of games, the model is marginally outperformed by the betting market. However, when it is used to forecast exact scores, the model proves to do at least as well as the market.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 29, Issue 1, January–March 2013, Pages 122–130
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 29, Issue 1, January–March 2013, Pages 122–130
نویسندگان
Rose D. Baker, Ian G. McHale,