کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
999636 | 1481451 | 2012 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Japanese election forecasting: Classic tests of a hard case
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
We look at the substantive theory behind political forecasting models, which are generally based on theories of electoral behavior. We argue that the theory relied on for developing forecasting models should be as non-controversial as possible; what we call “core theory”. We take the lessons of theory and practice in forecasting of western democracies and apply them to the unexplored Japanese case. We discover that, in fact, Japanese elections are quite amenable to forecasting. We observe the continuing cross-democracy generalizability of the core political economy model, a model that has bound together so much election forecasting work.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 28, Issue 4, October–December 2012, Pages 797–803
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 28, Issue 4, October–December 2012, Pages 797–803
نویسندگان
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien,