Path dependency and the future of advanced vehicles and biofuels

The accumulated experience and path-dependent development of petroleum-based transport fuels and internal combustion engine vehicles has created an apparent technological lock-in. Our analysis of a RApid Future vehicles and Fuels scenario (RAFF) for the EU shows that ambitious carbon emission reductions can be achieved even with projected increases in road transport. Furthermore, escaping the lock-in does not seem insurmountable. For this purpose, three strategic technology platforms should be supported: the electric drivetrain, the biochemical, and the thermo-chemical platforms. Each platform has its own characteristics and exhibits its own path dependencies that are relevant to consider with the aim of accelerating their development and application. Contrary to conventional wisdom indicating that governments should not pick winners, we argue that these three platforms should be subject to focused and concerted development efforts. They all offer advantages to transport as well as other applications, and they match low-carbon futures in which electricity and/or hydrogen are important energy carriers.