کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1012989 | 939165 | 2008 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
This study predicts the number of visitors to an international tourism Expo to be held in Korea in 2012, an unprecedented event for the host city. Forecasting demand for such a mega-event has received only limited attention in the literature. Unlike most studies forecasting international tourism demand, forecasting Expo demand involves using both quantitative forecasting models and qualitative technique because of data limitations. Combining quantitative techniques with willingness-to-visit (WTV) surveys predicts the Expo demand at 8.9 million visitors. In comparison using the Delphi method, experts predict Expo demand at 6.8 million visitors. For this study, the Delphi method provides more conservative estimates than estimates from combining quantitative techniques with WTV. Policy implications presented are directed toward Expo planners and practitioners in terms of demand and supply side, application of these results in the decision-making process, and future challenges surrounding demand forecasting.
Journal: Tourism Management - Volume 29, Issue 6, December 2008, Pages 1084–1098