کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1013221 939175 2008 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری استراتژی و مدیریت استراتژیک
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism
چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper, we model and forecast Australian domestic tourism demand. We use a regression framework to estimate important economic relationships for domestic tourism demand. We also identify the impact of world events such as the 2000 Sydney Olympics and the 2002 Bali bombings on Australian domestic tourism. To explore the time series nature of the data, we use innovations state space models to forecast domestic tourism demand. Combining these two frameworks, we build innovations state space models with exogenous variables. These models are able to capture the time series dynamics in the data, as well as economic and other relationships. We show that these models outperform alternative approaches for short-term forecasting and also produce sensible long-term forecasts. The forecasts are compared with the official Australian government forecasts, which are found to be more optimistic than our forecasts.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Tourism Management - Volume 29, Issue 1, February 2008, Pages 19–31
نویسندگان
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