کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
10149446 1646748 2018 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک بوم شناسی، تکامل، رفتار و سامانه شناسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression
چکیده انگلیسی
The mosquito Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for more than 25 arboviruses, including dengue and Zika, and the sole vector for the 2014 unprecedented dengue outbreak in southern China. Due to the lack of a deep understanding of how its seasonal abundance is tied to environments, current methods have failed to control its prevalence and expansion on a large scale. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model of difference equations that incorporates mosquito age at the four developmental stages, egg diapause, larval density competition, and the meteorological data for temperature, precipitation, and humidity, to predict the mosquito abundance over time in southern China. The generated temporal profile is robust against the variation of initial inputs, and matches well with the measurements in a northeast district in Guangzhou in 2013 and 2014 with a correlation coefficient R2 ≈ 0.9511. We find that chemical interventions have only a temporary effect; once the intervention is terminated, mosquito population bounces back quickly. Moreover, improper adulticide applications facilitate a fast spread of insecticide resistance. The resistance spread is quantified and the optimal intensity and frequency of chemical interventions are simulated. These findings remain to be tested by more real data and our methods can be adapted to other geographic areas and/or mosquito species for designing better mosquito control strategies.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Ecological Modelling - Volume 387, 10 November 2018, Pages 38-48
نویسندگان
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