Pluralistic backcasting: Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy

• We propose a method for pluralistic backcasting to support strategic transport planning and decision making.
• The method aims to reduce the gap between scientific knowledge for policy support and implementation of policy measures by various stakeholders.
• The method pictures different plausible futures and opens up the discussion on the policy packages and actions to reach the visions.
• The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050.
• Major shifts and deep structural changes in the transport systems seem to be inevitable to substantially reduce levels of CO2 emissions.

Traditionally backcasting studies in the field transport are based on a single normative vision (often with clearly stated targets) and alternative pathways are then developed to reach that vision. This paper expands the discussion on the role and importance of backcasting towards using multiple visions as a part of strategic transport planning process. This is done by presenting a method for pluralistic backcasting, which is defined as a process where multiple visions of the future are developed in a participatory, interdisciplinary process using the Delphi method. Further, the pathways to the alternative visions are constructed with a set of policy packages in a collaborative process with key stakeholders. The pluralistic backcasting approach outlined in the paper presents a set of practical tools to support development and implementation of climate strategies and policy programmes for transport. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of backcasting. The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050, including the identification of required policy packages to achieve the visions.