Delimiting port hinterlands based on intermodal network flows: Model and algorithm

• A mathematical model to formulate the probabilistic hinterland of a port and its boundaries.
• A Monte Carlo simulation based algorithm to determine and graphically show the boundaries of the port hinterland.
• Analytical analysis on the sample approximation of shippers’ choice probabilities.

This study aims to propose a tangible approach to delimiting the probabilistic hinterland of a port of interest. We first build a geometric model for the probabilistic port hinterland based on intermodal network flows jointly using discrete choice analysis and geographical information of shippers. We further design an algorithm that can efficiently determine the hinterland boundaries using the sample approximation of shippers’ choice probabilities. We provide theoretical results that characterize the minimum computational effort required to achieve a certain degree of accuracy in the sample approximation. We also offer two numerical case studies to justify the proposed approach.