کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1023482 | 1483038 | 2013 | 17 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
Quantitative market timing strategies have been traditionally tested in liquid commodity and financial futures, often with mixed results with respect to their performance. We extend this methodology to a non-storable commodity, freight, where hitherto this analysis has not been carried out. The freight futures market is mature and increasingly liquid, making it a good case for diversification and trading opportunities. We carry out a comprehensive study of quantitative trading strategies in the FFA (Forward Freight Agreements) market on a wide variety of contracts and maturities with a number of trading rules. We find that in spite of robustness checks, trading rules do outperform the buy-and-hold benchmark in general. We also explore the possibility that illiquidity and a small sample size may impact the results of the tests and therefore offer an intuitive approach to mitigate their effects. A procedure that augments the Hansen (2005) SPA (Superior Predictive Ability) methodology and allows us to use it for smaller sample sizes with increased confidence is also proposed.
► We test 11,548 market timing strategies in the Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) market.
► Data snooping bias was mitigated using the Superior Predictive Ability (SPA) test.
► We propose an augmentation for the SPA test to allow for small sample bias.
► We find that after robustness checks, trading rules do outperform the benchmark.
► This concurs with the adaptive market hypothesis: inefficiencies exist in younger markets.
Journal: Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review - Volume 52, June 2013, Pages 77–93