Predicting truck driver turnover

We propose a decision tool for truckload carriers that can help control driver turnover rates. Our approach is to use an existing econometric method, along with the drivers’ work data, to predict the quit probability of each driver on a weekly basis, so that carriers can identify a subset of drivers who are “about to quit” in a timely manner. Empirical results from two case studies indicate that our approach does a nice job of predicting driver exits, and that it may become a useful management decision tool. Our method was recently adopted by two US truckload carriers.