Study and analysis of energy consumption and energy-related carbon emission of industrial in Tianjin, China

• Industrial energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of Tianjin were analysis by LMDI.
• Extraction energy data with logistic and GM model to model industrial energy station.
• The energy conservation and emission reduction work in Tianjin from 2005 to 2012 achieved a certain effect.
• A model was used to check if the target can be achieved during the “12th Five-Year”.

This paper analyzed the total industrial energy consumption and energy-related carbon emission of Tianjin from 2003 to 2012. During 2008–2012, Tianjin's energy consumption of industrial added value decreased by 11.46%. The carbon dioxide emissions caused by industrial energy consumption of Tianjin increased year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 9.11% from 2005 to 2012, but the carbon emission intensity decreased by 53.17% during the same period. Using these energy consumption data, a model was able to predict the future with a high degree of accuracy to check if the target can be achieved that reduce its energy consumption per unit of GDP by 18% and carbon emission per unit GDP by 17% during the “12th Five-Year” period. Additionally, an energy decomposition analysis indicated that while the scale of production played a major role in the growth of industrial energy consumption, the intensity of energy played a major role in slowing the growth. These results show that energy-saving efforts and the optimization of the industrial structure have increased the energy efficiency of Tianjin. To achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction, the development of green and low-carbon industries and energy structure adjustments are needed.