Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry

Nations with tourism dependant economies are becoming increasingly concerned about the inclusion of aviation in greenhouse gas mitigation policy for international bunker fuels and more recently adaptation policy proposals. The central concern is that such policies will increase the cost of traveling by air, therefore reducing visitor arrivals to long-haul, tourism-dependent destinations, often small island developing states. This study used a tourism arrivals model to examine the implications of currently proposed climate policies for the world’s most tourism dependant region – the Caribbean. Results indicate that under current proposals for both mitigation and adaptation focused climate policy, reductions in tourist arrivals from the major markets of Europe and North America would be negligible versus business as usual growth projections Only under the most stringent mitigation policy scenario. Which may portend a post-2020 policy regime, is a significant decrease in tourist arrivals predicted. Of the climate policies assessed, the adaptation policy had the potential to provide greater economic benefits to the Caribbean region.

Research highlights
► The results indicate that until deeper emission cuts and higher carbon costs are implemented in mitigation policy there will be no meaningful impact on the growth of arrival numbers to the Caribbean.
► Of the climate policies assessed, the adaptation policy had the potential to provide greater economic benefits to the Caribbean region.
► The adoption in the Caribbean region of the International Air Passenger Adaptation Levy proposal is unlikely to significantly affect tourism arrivals in a negative way, with the potential bonus of providing significant adaptation funding to the region.