An exploration of the utility of mathematical modeling predicting fatigue from sleep/wake history and circadian phase applied in accident analysis and prevention: The crash of Comair Flight 5191

▶ Mathematical models taking sleep/wake history and circadian phase as inputs can predict fatigue-related degradation of performance. ▶ Given reliable estimates of sleep/wake history and circadian phase, these models can be usefully applied to accident analysis. ▶ Modeling indicates that fatigue was present in the Comair Flight 5191 Air Traffic Controller, for whom reliable estimates of sleep/wake history and circadian phase were available. ▶ More generally, modeling can be used prospectively to identify flights, schedules, and times of day where there is increased fatigue-risk.