Monte Carlo-based assessment of system availability. A case study for cogeneration plants

In the case study, a certain random and discrete event will be generated in a computer model in order to create a realistic lifetime scenario of the plant, and results of the simulation of the plant's life cycle will be produced. After that, there is an estimation of the main performance measures by treating results as a series of real experiments and by using statistical inference to reach reasonable confidence intervals. The benefits of the different plant configurations are compared and discussed using the model, according to their fulfillment of the initial availability requirements for the plant.