Disputed wind directions: Reinvigorating wind power development in Taiwan

This case study, which analyzes wind power development policy in Taiwan, investigates a theme that is commonly encountered by policy makers in a number of policy settings—how can appropriate policies be developed when two (or more) seemingly valid, yet disparate scientific or technical estimates confound objective analysis? The paper adopts the context of wind power development policy in Taiwan to demonstrate how to employ organizational analysis to identify factors which influence subjective assumptions underpinning disparate estimates of wind power potential and then demonstrates the application of two concepts from chaos theory – fitness landscapes and strategic real options – for guiding policy making despite the existence of technological dissent. In contrast to progressively declining feed-in tariffs that are commonly associated with fledgling renewable energy programs, this study introduces the concept of progressively escalating feed-in tariffs to encourage the development of mature markets—in this case, the Taiwan wind power market.