Simulating land use change in urban renewal areas: A case study in Hong Kong

• This research is the pilot study of applying CLUE-S model and Markov Chain prediction for land use change in urban renewal.
• The validation shows a relatively high reliability of this method to simulate land use change in urban renewal district.
• Probability maps provide implications of land use problems (such as a need for balanced distribution of open space).
• Scenario analysis shows different policy directions of land use in the future.

A considerable amount of research has been conducted on land use change, as it is extremely helpful when it comes to decision-making and policy formulation. Although land use change in urban renewal areas differs from that in new towns, very little research has focused on urban renewal and even less at the local or district level where most decisions need to be made. This study therefore developed a model for simulating land use change in urban renewal districts by combining the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) model and the Markov chain prediction model. The Yau Tsim Mong district of Kowloon in Hong Kong was the study area for the simulation, and historical land utilization data from 2000 to 2009 was used to validate the proposed model. By applying the validated model, four future land use scenarios were simulated for 2018 (the baseline scenario, the open space scenario, the residential scenario and the balanced scenario). The results not only indicate the effectiveness of the proposed model but also provide alternatives for future urban renewal based on different policy directions taken in the land use planning process.