Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis

► World oil prices are projected to rise in coming decade, to around $185 per barrel in 2020. ► If this occurs in Turkey, how to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Turkish economy? ► Cumulative output loss resulting from world oil prices increased by 121% can be as large as 14%. ► Cumulative inflation as measured by CPI index can be nearly 5% under a fixed exchange rate regime. ► Cumulative carbon emissions fall by around 51.7% without using any tools for climate change policy.