کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
10503916 | 946362 | 2012 | 13 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Campaigns and the prediction of election outcomes: Can historical and campaign-period prediction models be combined?
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
علوم اجتماعی
جغرافیا، برنامه ریزی و توسعه
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
⺠There are two approaches to predicting election outcomes: a historical one and a campaign-oriented one. ⺠We look at whether these two approaches can be usefully combined. ⺠We test whether prediction errors in historical models are related to trends during the campaign. ⺠That possibility is tested using 17 elections in the US, UK and Canada. âºÂ Results suggest that campaigns account for prediction errors only indirectly.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 31, Issue 4, December 2012, Pages 702-714
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 31, Issue 4, December 2012, Pages 702-714
نویسندگان
Ãric Bélanger, Stuart Soroka,