Party systems, political cleavages and electoral volatility in India

One of the defining characteristics of India in the 1990s has been high level of electoral volatility at the national level. However, this aggregate picture masks competing dynamics at the state level. Different states show markedly different patterns. Using survey data from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, this paper shows that volatility can be explained by three inter-linked factors: the party system format, the politicisation of social cleavages, and the extent to which these cleavages are polarised. The combined impact of these factors has a strong impact on volatility, both when measured in terms of vote-switching between parties and vote-switching between alliances.