Pension policy in China, Singapore, and South Korea: An assessment of the potential value of the notional defined contribution model

The rate of population aging is increasing in the developing world and the trend is particularly dramatic in East Asia. One consequence is sharp increases in old-age dependency ratios which have major implications for the sustainability of current public pension schemes. These trends are pushing pension policy experts in many of these countries to search for new pension models that are more suited to the increased demographic pressures they will be facing in the decades ahead. In this article we discuss five alternative public pension models with a focus on the newest of these models, the notional defined contribution (NDC) approach. We consider three countries with very different pension systems in place, two from East Asia (China and South Korea) and one from South East Asia (Singapore). The central question we address is which (if any) of the limitations in these existing models might more adequately be addressed using a variant of the NDC model. We conclude that the NDC model has the most to offer China and the least to offer Singapore.