Tea Party support and perceptions of local economic conditions

• Evaluations of the local economy are determined both by objective conditions and by individuals' attitudes.
• Metropolitan area unemployment, education, age, sex, and ideology all affect evaluations.
• Tea Party support strongly predicts negative evaluations, even controlling for objective conditions.

Researchers have long studied the underpinnings of voter perceptions of national economic conditions. Of growing interest though, is the effect of local economic evaluations on approval and voting behavior. Even though individuals engage more directly with the local economy than with that of the nation, perceptions of local conditions are colored as much by individual attitudes and demographics as by objective measures. Metropolitan area unemployment rates strongly predict local evaluations, but so do education, age, sex, and political attitudes. Of particular interest, even controlling for objective conditions, support for the Tea Party strongly predicts more negative evaluations and overpowers most other sources of bias.