کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1052037 946370 2011 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی علوم اجتماعی جغرافیا، برنامه ریزی و توسعه
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election
چکیده انگلیسی

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 30, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 250–257
نویسندگان
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