کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1052042 | 946370 | 2011 | 4 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Nowcasting V. polling: The 2010 UK election trials
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
علوم اجتماعی
جغرافیا، برنامه ریزی و توسعه
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper first offers a final forecast for the May 2010 UK general election based on our “two-step model” [Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bélanger, Ã., 2009. Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: a two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19, 333-358.]. That model is then used to explore a new technique, “nowcasting.” We examine our model “nowcasts,” comparing it to the classic forecasting strategy of the vote intention poll, across the contemporary election period, 2005-2010. As is shown, nowcasting offers forecasting advantages that simple polling does not. Most notably, the nowcast provides variation that appears much more subject to substantive explanation of the electoral cycle, and it provides predictions with a three-month lead.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 30, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 284-287
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 30, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 284-287
نویسندگان
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau, Ãric Bélanger,