Not always second order: Subnational elections, national-level vote intentions, and volatility spillovers in a multi-level electoral system

The widespread second-order view on subnational elections leaves little room for the idea that subnational election campaigns matter for national-level electoral preferences. I challenge this perspective and explore the context-conditional role of subnational election campaigns for national-level vote intentions in multi-level systems. Campaigns direct citizens’ attention to the political and economic “fundamentals” that determine their electoral preferences. Subnational election campaigns and the major campaign issues receive nation-wide media coverage. This induces all citizens in a country to evaluate parties at the national level even if they themselves are not eligible to vote in the upcoming subnational election. Thereby, subnational election campaigns may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of voters’ national-level electoral preferences throughout the country, which is reflected by a decrease in the volatility of national-level vote intentions. I explore weekly vote intention data from Germany (1992–2007) within a conditional volatility model. Subnational elections reduce uncertainty in nation-wide federal-level vote intentions for major parties. However, patterns of incumbency and coalitional shifts moderate this volatility-reducing effect.

► This paper explores the relationships between subnational election campaigns and national-level vote intentions.
►  Subnational election campaigns should reduce uncertainty in citizens' national-level vote intentions.
► I examine national-level vote intentions in Germany using a conditional volatility model.
► State election campaigns reduce volatility in federal-level vote intentions for major parties.
► Patterns of incumbency and coalitional shifts moderate this volatility-reducing effect.