Strategic politicians, partisan roll calls, and the Tea Party: Evaluating the 2010 midterm elections

The 2010 midterm elections were politically and historically significant in several respects. This article offers a concise narrative of the congressional elections beginning with a discussion of the factors influencing the outcome of the historic election. We briefly consider established research on congressional elections and analyze the degree to which these theories apply to the specific circumstances in 2010. Throughout the article, we compare the 2010 midterms to two other recent elections, 2006 and 2008. We also examine several idiosyncratic aspects of the 2010 elections, relative to the historic midterm elections of 1994 and 2006, as well as the effects of the stimulus and healthcare reform bills and the Tea Party movement. We find strong effects for member votes on the individual roll calls, but little evidence of Tea Party influence on electoral outcomes.

► This article offers a narrative and analysis of the 2010 midterm election.
► We compare the historic results of the 2010 elections with those held in 2006 and 2008.
► We find that legislators were held accountable for votes on the stimulus and health care reform.
► We find little evidence of Tea Party influence on electoral outcomes in 2010.