کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1052226 | 946378 | 2011 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
After seven waves of European Parliament elections and European Union enlargement to 27 states, the time is ripe to analyse the temporal robustness of the second-order model. We pool all the elections in a single evaluation and also look at election-by-election variations. We analyse changes in party performance over time in all EU states as well as in the ‘original 10’, to see whether any cross-time changes are driven by the changing composition of the EU. We also look for pan-European trends in each election, as a way identifying ‘European effects’ distinct from second-order effects. There are few consistent winners and losers, although socialist parties performed worse in the last three elections than their size and government status would predict.
Research highlights
► European elections 2009 broadly confirm to second order model.
► Government losses similar since 1994.
► Bonus for anti-EU bonus is declining in weight and not significant in 2009.
► Signs of election specific pan-European swings such an anti-socialist in 2009.
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 30, Issue 1, March 2011, Pages 4–15