Assessing the magnitude of the economic vote over time and across nations

By analyzing a wealth of survey data (163 national surveys) from 19 countries over two decades and by applying a methodology designed to make this evidence comparable, we offer for the first time a comprehensive map of the extent of economic voting across countries, over time, and for different parties. All told, we estimate voter preference functions for over 900 political parties. In this essay we analyze these data with the goal of establishing the extent to which there in fact is an economic vote in developed democracies. We find that the economic vote varies significantly across national contexts and over time. We also establish that the economy is a significant determinant of vote choice. We situate the median impact of economic evaluations on the vote probabilities of incumbent PM parties at approximately 5%.