Local context and extreme right support in England: The British National Party in the 2002 and 2003 local elections

This paper investigates the contextual determinants of support for the British National Party (BNP) in the 2002 and 2003 local elections in England. Aggregate electoral data are matched to contextual data at two geographic levels to estimate a multivariate Tobit model of support for the BNP. At the district level, large ethnic minority (particularly Pakistani and Bangladeshi) populations are associated with greater support for the BNP. Within these districts, though, the party is strongest within predominantly white neighborhoods. The BNP also seems to be strongest in economically deprived urban areas. In particular, local housing market conditions are found to have a greater effect on BNP support.