Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events

There is growing international concern at the rise in the severity of impact and frequency of extreme environmental events, potentially as a manifestation of global environmental change. There is a widely held belief that this trend could be linked with a future rise in the migration or displacement of human populations. However, recent approaches to migration influenced by environmental change call into question the notion that migration can be ascribed in a singular way to particular environmental causes or events. This paper undertakes a systematic review of evidence on population movements associated with weather-related extreme events. The paper demonstrates that in the face of extreme environmental events, it is important to distinguish between three outcomes – migration, displacement, and immobility – each of which interact and respond to multiple drivers. It also proposes a further insight: that both those who move, and those who do not move, may find themselves trapped and vulnerable in the face of such extreme events. A review of evidence suggests that short-term displacement that goes hand-in-hand with loss of life, destruction of property and economic disruption poses significant risks not because it is environmental migration, but because it represents a failure of adaptation to environmental change.

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► Migration is an important response to weather-related environmental extremes which may increase in importance over coming decades.
► It is important to distinguish migration, displacement and immobility as distinct outcomes of extreme events.
► Both those who move and those who do not move may become trapped in the face of extreme events.
► Urban planning and strategies for disaster risk reduction needs to recognise the particular vulnerabilities of migrant and trapped populations.