On the use of expert judgment to characterize uncertainties in the health benefits of regulatory controls of particulate matter

Health benefits assessment is an analytic tool used extensively by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in characterizing the costs and benefits of air quality regulations. In a 2002 review of EPA methods, the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) called on EPA to more fully account for and communicate uncertainties in estimates of the health benefits of air pollution regulations. In particular, the NRC recommended that EPA use expert judgment to quantify uncertainties in cases where empirical estimates are lacking. In response, EPA developed and carried out an expert elicitation (EE) study to quantify uncertainties in the effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on mortality in the U.S. This work has yielded new estimates of the uncertainty distribution of a key relationship – the concentration–response (C–R) function – used around the world in benefits analyses for air quality regulations. This paper discusses the ways in which the EE results have informed and influenced recent regulatory impact analyses (RIAs) carried out by EPA to characterize and communicate the health benefits of regulations affecting ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Given the growing importance of PM benefits analysis across the globe, recent developments pioneered by EPA could have widespread relevance.