On the relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and regional-scale primary PM emissions for the United Kingdom: an issue of subsidiarity

A site-specific particulate matter PM source apportionment model has been used to estimate the contributions from local primary PM emissions, regional primary PM emissions and the regional background to PM2.5 concentrations at 102 monitoring site locations and to the centres of 1 km × 1 km grid squares across the United Kingdom. The local primary PM contributions have then been compared with Europe-wide urban PM2.5 increments estimated at 50 km × 50 km in European-scale integrated assessment models. It is concluded that Europe-wide PM increments used in policy analyses grossly underestimate urban PM concentrations obtained from the site-specific PM source apportionment model for the United Kingdom. Europe-wide urban PM2.5 increments estimated at 5 km × 5 km scale are significantly improved, particularly for London, but underestimate those for smaller towns and cities by factors of 2–3. These underestimations have important air quality policy ramifications. Although environmental policies may well be best formulated at the European scale, the underpinning air quality modelling may be best carried out at the local scale.