Responding to scientific uncertainty in U.S. forest policy

Scientific uncertainty plays a significant role in forest policy and planning. Ecological complexity, the gap between science and policy, and public perceptions of science all contribute to the challenge of dealing with scientific uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the role of scientific uncertainty in U.S. forest policy and an analysis of the requirements for responding to uncertainty under the National Forest Management Act, National Environmental Policy Act, and Endangered Species Act. The analysis includes a review of a broad range of literature and relevant statutory and regulatory language, along with several illustrative examples of case law. Findings include that all three laws allow for considerable agency discretion in cases of scientific uncertainty, and none prescribes a particular response to uncertainty. Approaches such as adaptive management may provide a way to proceed despite uncertainty, and while this approach represents something of a new paradigm in public land management, it is not incompatible with the current legal framework. The article concludes with recommendations, such as increased transparency and changes in the norms of judicial review, for increasing the accountability of decisions when uncertainty is involved. Also considered are other suggestions, such as peer-review, Daubert standards, and Bayesian inference techniques.